Pythagorean Projections: 2009-2010 French Ligue 1
Categories: Soccer Pythagorean: Tables, Team Performance
Following up on my previous posts on Pythagoreans for the English and Turkish leagues, after the jump is a similar table for this season's Ligue 1 in France.
Club |
GP | GF |
GA |
Actual Pts |
Predicted Pts |
+/- League Standing |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bordeaux | 19 | 32 | 12 | 43 | 48 | 0 |
Marseille | 18 | 30 | 20 | 32 | 38 | +2 |
Lille | 19 | 37 | 19 | 34 | 44 | -1 |
Lyon | 19 | 31 | 26 | 30 | 36 | +4 |
Montpellier | 19 | 26 | 21 | 33 | 35 | +6 |
Rennes | 19 | 24 | 19 | 29 | 38 | 0 |
Auxerre | 19 | 19 | 15 | 32 | 38 | 0 |
Valenciennes | 19 | 30 | 26 | 28 | 36 | +1 |
PSG | 19 | 31 | 18 | 29 | 42 | -6 |
Lorient | 19 | 29 | 22 | 29 | 38 | -5 |
Monaco | 19 | 20 | 22 | 27 | 31 | +1 |
Nancy | 19 | 26 | 29 | 26 | 31 | +1 |
Lens | 19 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 30 | +1 |
Toulouse | 19 | 19 | 17 | 25 | 36 | -4 |
Sochaux | 17 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 27 | 0 |
Nice | 19 | 20 | 32 | 22 | 25 | +1 |
Saint-Etienne | 19 | 11 | 26 | 16 | 22 | +1 |
Le Mans | 19 | 17 | 28 | 16 | 25 | -2 |
Boulougne | 18 | 15 | 35 | 13 | 18 | 0 |
Grenoble | 19 | 10 | 33 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
According to the formula, Lyon and Montpellier have overperformed relative to their statistical expectations, while Toulouse, PSG, and Lorient have underperformed significantly. The rest of the teams have performed pretty much in line with what would be expected from their goalscoring statistics (Marseille and Le Mans being slightly better and worse, respectively).
I'm thinking that goal distribution might be another useful tool in determining whether the overperformance or underperformance is real or merely a statistical artifact. To that end, I'm very interested in the paper presentation by the Iowa State professor next month.