A first look at MTBF for the 2014 World Cup

In my previous post I introduced the concept of mean time between fouls and mean time between stoppages.  In this post I calculate mean time between fouls over all matches of the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

The data are taken from Press Association‘s Match Story feed of the World Cup, which is ingested into the Soccermetrics Connect API.  Calculation of MTBF is straightforward — determine those in-match events which are fouls, calculate the intervals between the times of fouls for each period of the match, and calculate the arithmetic mean of those intervals.  Below is a table of MTBF for regulation time periods of every match of the World Cup:

Home Team Away Team Referee 1st Half Fouls 1st Half MTBF (secs) 2nd Half Fouls 2nd Half MTBF (secs)
Korea Republic Algeria Wilmar Roldán 12 225.27 15 189.64
Costa Rica Greece Ben Williams 13 230.92 16 188.80
Netherlands Chile Bakary Gassama 21 131.05 16 144.07
Côte d’Ivoire Japan Enrique Osses 8 241.14 12 222.73
Japan Colombia Pedro Proença 15 191.93 11 253.50
Argentina Iran Milorad Mažić 12 251.82 9 311.25
Australia Spain Nawaf Shukralla 14 204.31 10 296.56
Croatia Mexico Ravshan Irmatov 14 201.69 12 251.18
Greece Côte d’Ivoire Carlos Vera 15 205.00 13 217.17
Nigeria Bosnia and Herzegovina Peter O’Leary 5 234.50 11 217.90
Iran Nigeria Carlos Vera 12 213.82 17 167.25
Germany Ghana Sandro Ricci 10 257.67 18 159.76
Brazil Chile Howard Webb 19 131.17 12 242.82
Russia Korea Republic Néstor Pitana 10 221.11 12 236.27
Ghana USA Jonas Eriksson 12 241.73 11 243.20
Switzerland France Björn Kuipers 11 180.90 13 197.83
Italy Costa Rica Enrique Osses 14 193.92 16 164.07
France Honduras Sandro Ricci 14 203.15 14 191.85
Brazil Colombia Carlos Velasco 26 106.80 28 107.56
Ecuador France Noumandiez Doué 12 227.09 9 324.75
Brazil Mexico Cüneyt Çakır 16 174.93 13 221.17
USA Germany Ravshan Irmatov 10 271.33 13 177.00
France Germany Néstor Pitana 11 227.70 20 140.32
Netherlands Costa Rica Ravshan Irmatov 13 213.83 9 296.62
Korea Republic Belgium Ben Williams 18 155.94 8 387.00
Germany Argentina Nicola Rizzoli 9 287.62 12 202.55
Colombia Greece Mark Geiger 11 251.70 21 130.30
Netherlands Argentina Cüneyt Çakır 11 214.40 9 278.50
Spain Netherlands Nicola Rizzoli 13 226.50 8 380.86
Colombia Côte d’Ivoire Howard Webb 12 174.18 14 218.92
Switzerland Ecuador Ravshan Irmatov 13 219.67 10 262.33
Australia Netherlands Djamel Haimoudi 22 128.24 20 144.79
Brazil Croatia Yuichi Nishimura 8 362.86 16 147.20
Honduras Switzerland Néstor Pitana 17 163.06 11 268.70
Cameroon Brazil Jonas Eriksson 12 231.73 19 151.67
Japan Greece Joel Aguilar 20 138.53 18 164.18
Germany Algeria Sandro Ricci 11 263.90 12 221.00
Spain Chile Mark Geiger 17 166.38 9 328.88
Belgium USA Djamel Haimoudi 16 177.93 10 242.33
Colombia Uruguay Björn Kuipers 13 214.92 13 219.08
Uruguay Costa Rica Felix Brych 16 152.73 20 145.16
Germany Portugal Milorad Mažić 11 191.90 10 293.00
Brazil Netherlands Djamel Haimoudi 17 153.69 17 179.25
Mexico Cameroon Wilmar Roldán 13 211.83 8 331.00
Argentina Switzerland Jonas Eriksson 21 129.95 17 162.06
France Nigeria Mark Geiger 11 271.90 13 207.67
Chile Australia Noumandiez Doué 14 197.46 11 189.50
Argentina Bosnia and Herzegovina Joel Aguilar 13 205.58 10 261.67
Algeria Russia Cüneyt Çakır 13 184.50 16 183.47
Bosnia and Herzegovina Iran Wilmar Roldán 20 128.63 16 178.60
Belgium Algeria Marco Antonio Rodríguez 14 189.00 23 125.50
Uruguay England Carlos Velasco 14 176.77 12 208.73
Honduras Ecuador Ben Williams 14 216.62 17 170.44
Italy Uruguay Marco Antonio Rodríguez 23 123.00 14 219.69
Cameroon Croatia Pedro Proença 11 228.40 9 281.38
England Italy Björn Kuipers 11 226.90 8 299.00
Brazil Germany Marco Antonio Rodríguez 11 219.30 12 243.64
Belgium Russia Felix Brych 12 206.91 10 291.11
Portugal Ghana Nawaf Shukralla 18 117.35 18 166.12
USA Portugal Néstor Pitana 13 223.92 10 252.56
Nigeria Argentina Nicola Rizzoli 12 240.55 10 317.78
Netherlands Mexico Pedro Proença 8 319.14 10 301.56
Argentina Belgium Nicola Rizzoli 10 300.44 16 168.93
Costa Rica England Djamel Haimoudi 14 184.00 20 126.37

Mean time between fouls of all matches at 2014 FIFA World Cup, regulation time only. Data sourced from Press Association MatchStory feed and served from Soccermetrics Connect API.

Over all of the matches of the World Cup, the mean time between fouls for each period varies as displayed in the figure below.  The chart indicates that fouls are whistled approximately three and one-half minutes apart (205.6 seconds) in the first half, and that interval widens in the second period (222.1 seconds) and even further during the extra time periods (231.8 and 280.5, respectively).  So does the referee swallow the whistle during extra time?  It’s tempting to conclude that by looking at the mean values, but the error bars caution otherwise.  There are fewer data points available for extra time matches — only eight matches in World Cup 2014 went to extra time — and even if you consider the shorter length of the period which would give teams less of an opportunity to foul, teams tend to be more reluctant in those extra time periods, anyway.  Of course, the second part of that last sentence was an assertion.  There aren’t enough data to make a strong conclusion.

Mean time between fouls (MTBF) over all matches of the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

Mean time between fouls (MTBF) over all matches of the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

Let’s examine the metric for the regulation time periods 1 and 2.  The chart below displays the average MTBF during the regulation periods over all of the matches officiated by a match referee, then columns for the average over the 90 minutes and the difference in MTBF between the first and second halves.  Now, a low MTBF could be a result of a bad-tempered match between the two teams in the match, and we would need further analysis to estimate contributions by the teams and the referee.  But I would argue that a significant change in MTBF indicates a tendency of a match referee to call a match one way during the first half and then loosen or tighten control during the second period.

In that light, the performance of Yuichi Nishimura stands out in a very big way.  The first half of his match between Brazil and Croatia — the opening match of the 2014 FIFA World Cup — was called very loosely.  The mean time between fouls called in that half was six minutes two seconds, over thirty seconds longer than the first half of any other World Cup match.  As if to compensate for such permissiveness, he called the second half very tight — the MTBF was almost two and a half minutes, which was the 9th tightest second half of the 64 matches.  Even if you look at matches on an individual level (which will be the subject of an upcoming post), only two other matches experience a change in MTBF as significant as the Brazil-Croatia match.

Nicola Rizzoli, who refereed the final, had on average the highest MTBF over regulation time, but even this figure is a little misleading.  Rizzoli was in charge of the Argentina-Belgium quarterfinal, which was first refereed loosely in the first half (300.44 seconds) and very tight in the second half (168.93 seconds).  How much of that swing in MTBF had to do with the two teams, and how much of that had to do with Rizzoli being a little stricter?  It’s hard to say.  I think it’s a good thing that Rizzoli appears to call a consistent match over both halves, and that’s probably a reflection of his high regard within the international game, but one needs a larger body of work than four matches to be sure.

    Avg MTBF (sec)
Referee Matches First Half Second Half 90 Mins Diff
Nicola Rizzoli 4 263.8 267.5 265.7 3.8
Pedro Proença 3 246.5 278.8 262.7 32.3
Milorad Mažić 2 221.9 302.1 262.0 80.3
Yuichi Nishimura 1 362.9 147.2 255.0 -215.7
Ravshan Irmatov 4 226.6 246.8 236.7 20.2
Noumandiez Doué 2 212.3 257.1 234.7 44.9
Peter O’Leary 1 234.5 217.9 226.2 -16.6
Mark Geiger 3 230.0 222.3 226.1 -7.7
Ben Williams 3 201.2 248.7 225.0 47.6
Björn Kuipers 3 207.6 238.6 223.1 31.1
Néstor Pitana 4 208.9 224.5 216.7 15.5
Sandro Ricci 3 241.6 190.9 216.2 -50.7
Wilmar Roldán 3 188.6 233.1 210.8 44.5
Cüneyt Çakır 3 191.3 227.7 209.5 36.4
Enrique Osses 2 217.5 193.4 205.5 -24.1
Carlos Vera 2 209.4 192.2 200.8 -17.2
Felix Brych 2 179.8 218.1 199.0 38.3
Nawaf Shukralla 2 160.8 231.3 196.1 70.5
Jonas Eriksson 3 201.1 185.6 193.4 -15.5
Joel Aguilar 2 172.1 212.9 192.5 40.9
Howard Webb 2 152.7 230.9 191.8 78.2
Marco Antonio Rodríguez 3 177.1 196.3 186.7 19.2
Djamel Haimoudi 4 161.0 173.2 167.1 12.2
Carlos Velasco 2 141.8 158.1 150.0 16.4
Bakary Gassama 1 131.1 144.1 137.6 13.0

Below is the average MTBF during the regulation periods over all of the matches involving the World Cup teams. As with referees, teams involved in matches with infrequent fouling tend to reverse their behavior in the second half, and vice-versa.  The overall tendency is for the time between fouls to increase, but for seven of the eight sides with the shortest MTBF in the second half, all of them participated in matches in which the average frequency of fouls increased from the first half to the second.  All of the ten sides with the longest MTBF in the second half experienced a decrease in the average frequency of fouls from the opening period to the next.

Avg MTBF (sec)
Team Matches First Half Second Half 90 Mins Diff
Spain 3 199.1 335.4 267.2 136.4
Mexico 4 226.9 276.2 251.6 49.3
Croatia 3 264.3 226.6 245.5 -37.7
Cameroon 3 224.0 254.7 239.3 30.7
Argentina 7 232.9 243.2 238.1 10.3
Ecuador 3 221.1 252.5 236.8 31.4
Korea Republic 3 200.8 271.0 235.9 70.2
Nigeria 4 240.2 227.7 233.9 -12.5
USA 4 228.7 228.8 228.8 0.0
Germany 7 245.6 205.3 225.5 -40.3
Belgium 5 206.0 243.0 224.5 36.9
Netherlands 7 198.1 246.5 222.3 48.4
Russia 3 204.2 237.0 220.6 32.8
France 5 222.1 212.5 217.3 -9.7
Côte d’Ivoire 3 206.8 219.6 213.2 12.8
Iran 3 198.1 219.0 208.6 20.9
Portugal 3 177.7 237.2 207.5 59.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 189.6 219.4 204.5 29.8
Italy 3 181.3 227.6 204.4 46.3
England 3 195.9 211.4 203.6 15.5
Honduras 3 194.3 210.3 202.3 16.1
Japan 3 190.5 213.5 202.0 22.9
Switzerland 4 173.4 222.7 198.1 49.3
Algeria 4 215.7 179.9 197.8 -35.8
Ghana 3 205.6 189.7 197.6 -15.9
Australia 3 176.7 210.3 193.5 33.6
Chile 4 156.5 226.3 191.4 69.8
Brazil 7 197.2 184.8 191.0 -12.5
Greece 4 206.5 175.1 190.8 -31.4
Costa Rica 5 195.1 184.2 189.6 -10.9
Colombia 5 187.9 185.9 186.9 -2.0
Uruguay 4 166.9 198.2 182.5 31.3

I’ll revisit the MTBF during extra time and attempt to extract the contributions of the teams and referees to the metric in a future post.

UPDATE (27 Oct, 21:44): I have merged the first and second half tables for referees and teams.  Hopefully these changes will communicate the metric more easily.

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