Jay Heumann, “An improvement to the baseball statistic ‘Pythagorean Wins’”, Journal of Sports Analytics, 2(1): 49-59, 2016. [PDF]Abstract: This paper introduces a new version to the commonly used “Pythagorean wins” statistic, which improves on the traditional method by means of mathematical adjustment. The new statistic is called the “pairwise” Pythagorean wins, and it is demonstrated, […]
I'm using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case of the three-parameter Weibull distribution that is the basis of the Pythagorean formula. Below I present the exponent values that I obtained from the least-squares estimation, as well as a few plots that show how the resulting Weibull distribution fit to the score data. […]
As I said in my last post on my extended Pythagorean formula for soccer, I was in the process of compiling score data for the 2008-09 English Premier League season in order to test this formulation. The first step was to fit the data to a Weibull probability distribution in order to estimate the alpha […]
** BUMPED to the top with updates added **I want to give an update on my efforts to derive a Pythagorean (or Pythagorean-like) formula for use in soccer. As I said in other posts, the most challenging part is coming up with the term that captures the probability of a drawn result. This is rather […]
The other night I found myself included on a message thread where a guy (this one) is attempting to develop a soccer Pythagorean formula that would allow him to predict the number of points won over a league season based on the number of goals scored and allowed by a team over a season. From […]
