Pythagorean 2.0 Projections: 2010 MLS Regular Season (2010-08-22)
Categories: Soccer Pythagorean: Tables
Just about all of the teams in Major League Soccer have 10-12 matches remaining, so it is a good place to look at how the teams' performances compare to their statistical expectations. I published similar tables on the 6th of June and the 1st of May.
Same thing as before — league Pythagorean exponent of 1.70, and separate conference tables. I could have published a unitary table, which would have made sense with the balanced table, but I decided to leave it this way. If you look at the current table and compare it to the tables from May and June, you'll see that the Red Bulls have cooled off a bit but are still overperforming. Columbus seem to have hit their stride in May and consistently overperformed since then. What is interesting about MLS is that you don't find teams that significantly over- or under-perform relative to their statistical expectations. New York was performing at +6 in the last Pythagorean table, and Chivas USA at -5 in the current one, but the variations stay within that six-point band. Perhaps this is an artifact of the parity in the league that the front office places a high priority on.
Eastern Conference:
Team | GP | GF | GA | Pts | Pythag | +/- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbus Crew | 21 | 31 | 20 | 40 | 36 | +4 |
New York Red Bulls | 21 | 25 | 23 | 34 | 30 | +4 |
Toronto FC | 20 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 25 | +1 |
Chicago Fire | 18 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 25 | -1 |
Kansas City Wizards | 20 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 24 | -1 |
New England Revolution | 20 | 20 | 33 | 21 | 19 | +2 |
Philadelphia Union | 20 | 23 | 36 | 17 | 20 | -3 |
D.C. United | 21 | 15 | 35 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
Western Conference:
Team | GP | GF | GA | Pts | Pythag | +/- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Galaxy | 21 | 32 | 14 | 43 | 41 | +2 |
Real Salt Lake | 21 | 36 | 16 | 39 | 42 | -3 |
FC Dallas | 20 | 28 | 17 | 36 | 35 | +1 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 27 | +2 |
Seattle Sounders FC | 21 | 23 | 25 | 29 | 27 | +2 |
Colorado Rapids | 20 | 22 | 21 | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Houston Dynamo | 21 | 27 | 33 | 23 | 25 | -2 |
Chivas USA | 20 | 22 | 26 | 19 | 24 | -5 |