Final Pythagorean table for 2011-12 Italian Serie A

Below is the final Pythagorean table for the 2011-12 Italian Serie A whose final matches were today (13 May).  The league Pythagorean exponent is 1.70.  This table reflects point totals won on the field, and does not account for the 6 point deduction suffered by Atalanta in the aftermath of the latest match fixing scandal.

Juve were deserved winners, but their unbeaten record helps illustrate one flaw of the soccer Pythagorean.  It doesn’t predict overall records very well, especially at the extremes of team achievement (unbeaten seasons, or winless seasons).  But the spread of expected wins, draws, and losses results in a point total that is close to reality more often than not.  We see that here in the Juventus expectation — the predicted record is way off, but the point total is spot on.

The big overachievers were Chievo, who should have been fighting relegation yet finished in 10th place.  Michael Bradley is going to get a lot of attention in the off-season, but he probably won’t be the only one from that squad.  The big underachievers were Napoli and Siena.

League Table Pythagorean
Team GP W D L GF GA GD Pts W D L Pts Δ
Juventus 38 23 15 0 68 20 +48 84 25 9 4 84 +0
Milan 38 24 8 6 74 33 +41 80 23 8 7 77 +3
Udinese 38 18 10 10 52 35 +17 64 18 11 9 65 -1
Lazio 38 18 8 12 56 47 +9 62 16 10 12 58 +4
Napoli 38 16 13 9 66 46 +20 61 19 9 10 66 -5
Internazionale 38 17 7 14 58 55 +3 58 15 9 14 54 +4
Roma 38 16 8 14 60 54 +6 56 16 9 13 57 -1
Parma 38 15 11 12 54 53 +1 56 14 10 14 52 +4
Atalanta 38 13 13 12 41 43 -2 52 13 11 14 50 +2
Bologna 38 13 12 13 41 43 -2 51 13 11 14 50 +1
Chievo 38 12 13 13 35 45 -10 49 11 11 16 44 +5
Catania 38 11 15 12 47 52 -5 48 13 10 15 49 -1
Fiorentina 38 11 13 14 37 43 -6 46 12 12 14 48 -2
Siena 38 11 11 16 45 45 +0 44 14 11 13 53 -9
Cagliari 38 10 13 15 37 46 -9 43 11 11 16 44 -1
Palermo 38 11 10 17 52 62 -10 43 12 9 17 45 -2
Genoa 38 11 9 18 50 69 -19 42 11 9 18 42 +0
Lecce 38 8 12 18 40 56 -16 36 10 10 18 40 -4
Novara 38 7 11 20 35 65 -30 32 8 9 21 33 -1
Cesena 38 4 10 24 24 60 -36 22 6 10 22 28 -6

 

Share

Tags: