Final Pythagorean for 2009-2010 English Premier League

Following up on a promise I made earlier this week, here is the final Pythagorean for this season's English Premier League. 

Team GP GF GA Pts Pythag +/-
Chelsea 38 103 32 86 88 -2
Manchester United 38 86 28 85 86 -1
Arsenal 38 83 41 75 76 -1
Tottenham Hotspur 38 67 41 70 69 +1
Manchester City 38 73 45 67 69 -2
Aston Villa 38 52 39 64 61 +3
Liverpool 38 61 35 63 69 -6
Everton 38 60 49 61 59 +2
Birmingham City 38 38 47 50 45 +5
Blackburn Rovers 38 41 55 50 42 +8
Stoke City 38 34 48 47 41 +6
Fulham 38 39 46 46 46 0
Sunderland 38 48 56 44 47 -3
Bolton Wanderers 38 42 67 39 37 +2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 32 56 38 35 +3
Wigan Athletic 38 37 79 36 29 +7
West Ham United 38 47 66 35 41 -6
Burnley 38 42 82 30 31 -1
Hull City 38 34 75 30 28 +2
Portsmouth 38 34 66 28 32 -4

I thought there would be a huge discrepancy between the projections and the point totals, but I looked at my code and found out that I was calculating win/draw probabilities for a team that scored up to five or six goals!  That wasn't sufficient for this season so I adjusted the maximum score upward, which greatly improved the results.

So the top four performed in line with their expectations.  Tottenham were about a point better, Manchester City about a point or two worse, but that was the difference between Champions League or Europa League football next season.  Liverpool and West Ham underachieved in a big way if you looked at the statistical expectations, and if you talked with supporters of either side they would probably say the same thing!

I used points won on the field to compare with Pythagorean estimates.  Portsmouth would have gone down even if they hadn't been assessed a penalty for going into administration, but they underachieved during the season.  Wigan, despite their propensity for suffering heavy defeats, performed seven points better than expected.  Those home wins against Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool ensured their survival, and that was reflected in their Pythagorean.  It was a combination of failing to cobble together enough points from winnable matches and Wigan Atletic's run of upset victories that doomed Pompey to the Football League Championship — not an administrative ruling by the FA.

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