Ajax wasn’t the team that was amazing in the Eredivisie
Categories: Soccer Pythagorean: Tables
I had made a mistake in my computation of the Pythagorean. There wasn't an issue with the formula itself; I hadn't calculated the win/draw probabilities out to enough goals. I increased the upper limit to ten to account for the heavy results seen in the Eredivisie and recalculated the Eredivisie table. The results were amazing:
| Team | GP | GF | GA | Pts | Pythag | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente Enschede | 34 | 63 | 23 | 86 | 73 | +13 |
| Ajax Amsterdam | 34 | 106 | 20 | 85 | 86 | -1 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 72 | 29 | 78 | 72 | +6 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 34 | 54 | 31 | 63 | 62 | +1 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 64 | 34 | 62 | 65 | -3 |
| SC Heracles Almelo | 34 | 54 | 49 | 56 | 50 | +6 |
| FC Utrecht | 34 | 39 | 33 | 53 | 50 | +3 |
| FC Groningen | 34 | 48 | 47 | 49 | 47 | +2 |
| Roda JC Kerkrade | 34 | 56 | 60 | 47 | 45 | +2 |
| NAC Breda | 34 | 42 | 49 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| Heerenveen | 34 | 44 | 64 | 37 | 36 | +1 |
| VVV Venlo | 34 | 43 | 57 | 35 | 38 | -3 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 35 | 59 | 33 | 32 | +1 |
| Vitesse Arnhem | 34 | 38 | 62 | 32 | 33 | -1 |
| ADO Den Haag | 34 | 38 | 59 | 30 | 34 | -4 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 30 | 66 | 26 | 25 | +1 |
| Willem II Tilburg | 34 | 36 | 70 | 23 | 28 | -5 |
| RKC Waalwijk | 34 | 30 | 80 | 15 | 21 | -6 |
Just as in the Spanish league, the Pythagorean estimates very well the point total of the team with the extreme goal statistics. You would expect a team with 106 goals scored and 20 conceded to win 85% of the points available, which Ajax did. You would also expect such a team to run away with the league title. The fact that they did not underscores just how phenomenal Twente's season really was.
