It’s time to put forward our league projection for the 2013-14 Barclays Premier League. Once again, these projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and the current squad (thanks to Aaron Nielsen) and a Pythagorean projection of team records based on expected goal statistics. So here’s how […]
The Spanish Primera — La Liga — premieres this weekend, and the Segunda starts tonight. So it’s a good time to present our league projections for 2013-14.Segunda División We project that Sporting Gijón will be promoted to the 2014-15 Primera as champions. Mallorca and Real Zaragoza will be involved in a two-way fight for promotion […]
We now move into projecting the league outcomes for the English leagues, and we start with the three divisions of the Football League below the Premier League. The season kicked off last weekend, but the projections aren’t going to be affected by one match.Again, if you want to know how we did these projections, consult […]
This is Part 4 of our European league projections, and we start down under with the Australian A-League, then focus on selected leagues in Central Europe, and finish with Italy, which isn’t in Central Europe but close enough.Again, if you want to know how we come up with these projections, we explain them in Part […]
We continue our league projections for the 2013-14 European season, starting with the decidedly non-European league in South Africa.South Africa: This league kicked off a couple of weeks ago. We think the Premier Soccer League will be very close, but Kaiser Chiefs could sneak a title from SuperSport United, Orlando Pirates, and Platinum Stars. At […]
We continue our projections of selected European leagues in 2013-14 with eight more competitions in France, Germany, Greece, Poland, and Russia. In Part I of this series, we explain how we developed these projections.Here we go —France (Ligue 1): Most observers expect PSG and Monaco to be the top two teams in Ligue 1 given […]
We introduce league projections on Soccermetrics for over 20 leagues that follow the European calendar. Most of these leagues are in Europe, of course, but there are also leagues in the Americas, Africa, and Asia that also follow such a schedule.To make these projections we first project the goals scored and allowed by a team. […]
Remaining on the subject of applying quantitative metrics from other sports, I’ll mention one from basketball — the Correlated Gaussian method. (more…)
One of the theses of Kuper and Szymanski's book Soccernomics is that team performance in a football league is strongly determined by its payroll; in other words, clubs with highest payrolls finish at the top of the league more often than not. I've seen publications that state the correlation coefficient between payroll and points in […]
[This is an expanded post of the one I published on HexagonalBlog today (11 March). I've now bumped it to the top and added some more analysis to make it a one-parter in the end.]Most people would say that CD Saprissa's artificial turf gives them a significant home advantage. But Saprissa's stadium has always been […]
