Following on from my most recent post, I present league projections for the 2015-16 English Premier League.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order. These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and […]
The 2015-16 European season is here, and it’s time to repeat a feature of the site: preseason league projection tables. This post will feature projections for the Dutch Eredivisie which starts this weekend.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order. These league […]
The preseason projections for the 2014-15 English Premier League generated a lot of interest, and an equal amount of criticism. It’s been a long nine months since the season started, and now that we’re at its end, it’s time to evaluate the league projections against the final reality.There are many people who are coming to […]
Another European season is drawing to a close, and it’s time to take a look back at preseason projections that were made. In contrast to the 30+ league projections last season, there were only two made this time: the Dutch Eredivisie and the English Premier League. The Eredivisie concluded last Sunday, so this post will […]
Major League Soccer’s 20th season kicks off later tonight, so in advance of the new season I present projections for all twenty teams in the regular season.I thank Aaron Nielsen for his work in creating expected goal statistics for all of the MLS sides and for his permission in allowing me to use these figures […]
The 2014 Major League Soccer regular season concluded a week and a half ago. It’s time to look back at the projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what we projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final league table finished like this […]
The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Eredivisie. (more…)
The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Premier League. (more…)
To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that. The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE. Unless stated by a number next to the […]
This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season. At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. (more…)
